Recent data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) indicates that there has been a deceleration in the evolution of median house prices in seven municipalities, including in Lisbon.
According to a report by idealista, BPI analysts consider that this scenario may continue in the near future, anticipating “prices stabilisation” by the end of the year and a “market correction” in 2023, with values falling by 1.5%.
According to BPI Research of November 2022, there are several factors that have “contributed decisively” to the increase in house prices, including a prolonged period with favourable financial conditions (low-interest rates); Low unemployment; Lack of supply of new properties; Growing demand; Increased construction costs and acquisition of real estate as an investment.
“But the context has changed”, warn BPI analysts. “With the impact of inflation on family budgets and with the reversal of monetary policy by the ECB (beginning to increase interest rates), we expect that prices will stabilise at the end of this year”.
The consequence of this will be an adjustment in the prices of houses for sale next year. “2023 should be a year of a slight market correction (average price variation of -1.5%). This will result from the cooling of demand associated with the tightening of financial conditions and the pace of rising interest rates faster than initially forecast”, reads the document.
With regard to mortgage loans, analysts expect that “tighter financial conditions with the rapid increase in indexes (Euribor rates) will condition demand in the coming months and in 2023 as a whole”.
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