For the signatories of the study published in BMJ Global Health, health policies and the global interest resulting from the financial and social crises make eradication of the virus possible, but, according to specialists from the University of Otago Wellington (New Zealand), the main objectives are to ensure greater vaccination coverage, capable of responding quickly to variants. "Although our analysis is preliminary, with several subjective elements, it seems to place the eradication of Covid-19 within the realm of the possible, especially in terms of technical feasibility", say the authors of the study, which includes comparative data from technical, socio-political factors and economics of Covid-19, polio and smallpox infections.
The researchers used a three-point scoring system for each of 17 variables, including availability of a safe and effective vaccine, lifetime immunity, the impact of public health measures, and effective government management of infection control. Political and public concern with economic and social repercussions or the acceptance of restrictive measures were also calculated. Mean scores in the study totalled 2.7 for smallpox, 1.6 for Covid-19, and 1.5 for polio. Smallpox was declared eradicated in 1980 and two of the three poliovirus serotypes have also been eradicated globally.
Experts recognise that, in relation to smallpox and polio, the technical challenges of eradicating Covid-19 include low vaccine acceptance and the emergence of more transmissible variants. “However, viral evolution has its limits. It is to be expected that the virus will eventually reach its maximum capacity and that new vaccines will be designed”, they argue.
Persistence of the virus in animal reservoirs could also frustrate efforts, but it doesn't appear to be a serious problem, the researchers add. On the other hand, the “unprecedented global interest in disease control and massive investment in pandemic vaccination” is highlighted. Unlike smallpox and polio, Covid-19 benefits from the additional impact of public health measures such as border control, social distancing and the use of masks, which “can be very effective if [they are] well implemented”.
Covid-19 elimination has been achieved and sustained over long periods in several Asian regions, “providing proof that global eradication is technically possible,” they summarise. Among the future challenges, the study identifies achieving international cooperation to fight “vaccine nationalism”.
The first positive story i have read since 5th March 2020,
By Joao Martins from Algarve on 10 Aug 2021, 19:56
Totally unrealistic for the rest of the world; maybe in New Zealand. I live in Miami and I've seen the rallies with anti-maskers in Portugal. People are brainwashed and misinformed by Facebook telling them if they get the shot they'll die in 2 years and what's worse, they believe it. Until government can regulate these entities like Fox News and all the liars claiming freedom of speech we have at least 10 more years scientists around the world are saying. People are ignorant of the truth and even vaccinated people can pass it on to people so the next mutation is stronger. THEY will have their "Freedom" (really in a worldwide pandemic) but when the mutations get so strong there is no vaccine for protection, people will die and civilizations will crumble because of the stubborn Anti-vaxers who are too selfish to care about others.
By Wes Bradley from USA on 11 Aug 2021, 05:50
Firstly, that is not a peer reviewed article so has to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Secondly as long as the vaccines are not "sterilising" it will never happen.
Thirdly,unless the whole world is vaccinated at almost the same time,it will also never happen.
Finally,more effort needs to go into therapeutics than simply relying on semi effective vaccines which don't stop the vaccinated from catching or spreading the virus.
By James from Algarve on 11 Aug 2021, 06:33
Blatant lies... Just look at the real science.
And Wes Bradley; mutations generally make a virus weaker, but more contagious, not more dangerous. Educate yourself.
By Fred Doe from Algarve on 11 Aug 2021, 11:25
Just like we got rid of the common cold (corona virus) and influenza???? This article is lunacy
By Latoysha Adams from USA on 11 Aug 2021, 14:56
Sorry Fred; I only talk or print if I can trust and verify and I am very well educated about mutations because I am repeating the information from Dr. Rochelle P. Walenski, head of The Center for Disease Control US who I'm quite sure knows more than both of us. Something I said must have touched a nerve; maybe your an anti tax/masker. Well, that is the science with THIS virus and I've heard it many times from her on interviews so don't try to confuse people; offer them the truth so they get vexed and mask-up for themselves, their loved ones and for anyone they may spread the infection to.
By Wes Bradley from USA on 12 Aug 2021, 06:53
By the way Fred Doe from Algarve although I do wish you the best, am only trying to educate people with scientific truth, not from unregulated Facebook and will let that "Educate yourself" comment you posted to me be considered your uniformed mistake, are you aware that HALF of the world was vaccinated with The China Vaccine (they reached out, no bad vibes) which is NOT resistant to The Delta or Delta Plus Variant? So doubtful it'll be over before 10 years. Also info from The CDC.
By Wes Bradley from USA on 12 Aug 2021, 07:05