The INSA notes, however, in its weekly report that, with due to the cessation of the state of alert on October 1, and consequent change in testing, “there was a sharp decline in the incidence and value of the Rt that may not correspond to a real decrease".
Estimates from the Ricardo Jorge National Institute of Health indicate that on October 6th the transmissibility index stood at 0.63 and on October 15th it rose to 0.92.
The average value of the Rt (effective reproduction number), between the 11th and 15th of October, was 0.88, its true value being between 0.87 and 0.89 with a confidence of 95%.
The report indicates an increase in the transmissibility index in all regions of the country compared to the previous week, with an estimated Rt of 0.84 in the North, 0.88 in the Center, 0.89 in Lisbon and Vale do Tejo, 0 .79 in the Alentejo, 0.80 in the Algarve.
Only the Azores (1.09) and Madeira (1.22) have a transmissibility index above the threshold of 1, according to the data.
According to INSA estimates, by October 15, 5,512,398 cases of Covid-19 had occurred in Portugal.
In the European comparison, Portugal has a 14-day cumulative notification rate between 120 and 239.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and an Rt lower than 1, a “high notification rate with a decreasing trend”.
Covid-19 transmissibility index up to 0.88
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